Bluenami Senate v.1 · Nineteen Senate seats · data to Sept. 21, 2026
Bluenami
Nineteen red states, what this year's bills cost the people in them, and how far the water would have to rise.
What this year cost, and the change red‑state voters can reach for
The Trump bill came due this year, and it took a bigger bite of family income in 17 of the 19 red states on the Senate map than in the country as a whole, mostly because the same bills land on smaller paychecks.
These are nineteen states where Republicans are defending Senate seats this year that were long rated safe or near-safe; three of them, Alaska, Ohio and Texas, have since moved to toss-up (Cook Political Report). Iowa, which Trump carried by 13 points and which also has a Senate race this year, is not among them. The people elected on November 3 decide what happens next. Part of this year's loss traces to decisions made in Washington, and this page shows, state by state and county by county, how much each household has lost, what is scheduled to come, and how many votes it would take to change course. It keeps the household numbers and the vote numbers separate so each can be checked on its own, and every figure shows where it came from.
MMeasured by an agency or official source
CComputed from measured figures, arithmetic shown
PPublished projection, schedule or estimate
IIllustration built on a stated assumption
NFNot found
−$Money taken out of a household; +$ money that comes in
All nineteen states
Select any state on the map or in the ranking to open it below.
Three views of the same map. Tap one to change it.
Swing toward Democrats, margin points:
Count among:
On a phone the figures are in the tables; tap a state to open it.
Tile shape:
Share of income a working household that buys its own coverage lost this year
Rank by:
ElectricityGasolineHealth coverageU.S. average household
Each bar is a working household with two drivers in which one person buys their own health coverage, comparing this year's prices with last year's; the method sits under the state breakdown below. AAA's year-ago gasoline prices were available for seven states; the other twelve use the national rise as a stand-in. Every state uses the same national benchmark of 20,800 miles for two drivers, so rural driving is likely undercounted.
Part one · The cost
The household: what has been taken so far
Part two · Where it goes
2027 and 2028: how it continues, and how it gets worse